Google Data Analytics Certificate — Capstone Project

Cyclistic Bike-Share:
Converting Casual Riders

A Data-Driven Campaign Strategy

Gabriel Almeida Alves  ·  May 2026  ·  R + Tableau

Business Question

"How do annual members and casual riders use Cyclistic bikes differently — and how can those differences drive a campaign to convert casual riders into annual members?"

Cyclistic's finance team determined that annual members are significantly more profitable than casual riders. This analysis was commissioned to identify behavioral patterns that would enable targeted, data-driven conversion campaigns.

5.7M
Total rides analyzed
3,658,607
Member rides
2,032,986
Casual rides
12 mo.
May 2025 – Apr 2026

Key Findings

Annual Members Casual Riders
Avg. trip duration12 minutes19 minutes (+58%)
Median trip duration8.6 min11.3 min
Peak daysMon – FriSat – Sun
Peak hours8am & 5–6pm12pm – 6pm
Station patternCity-wide (residential + commercial)Lakefront (tourist + recreational)
Winter demandConsistent year-roundNearly disappears (–92% vs. peak)
1

Members commute. Casual riders explore.

The activity heatmap shows members peaking at rush hours on weekdays — consistent with using bikes as a transportation tool. Casual riders peak on weekend afternoons, consistent with leisure, tourism, and recreation.

2

Casual riders take longer, more expensive trips.

At 19 min average vs. 12 min for members, casual riders extract 58% more time per ride — while paying per trip instead of a flat annual fee. Frequent casual riders are structurally overpaying for the same usage a membership would cover.

3

Casual demand collapses in winter — and explodes in spring.

Casual rides drop to ~25K in January vs. ~330K in August. Demand starts accelerating in April, creating a clear conversion window: reach casual riders before they lock into a summer of pay-per-trip habits.

4

Casual riders cluster at Chicago's leisure corridor.

The top casual stations concentrate near Millennium Park, Navy Pier, and Grant Park — Chicago's primary tourist and recreational corridor. Members distribute across residential and commercial neighborhoods city-wide.

Interactive Dashboard

Explore the full analysis — heatmap, seasonality, duration distribution, and station map — built in Tableau Public.

📊
Open Interactive Dashboard
Heatmap · Seasonality · Duration Distribution · Station Map
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Recommendations

Three targeted recommendations, each directly tied to the behavioral data above:

1

Launch a Spring Conversion Campaign (April – June)

Casual demand is accelerating but has not yet peaked. This is the highest-ROI window to reach casual riders before they establish a full summer of pay-per-trip habits. Offer a time-limited discounted annual membership valid for the full summer season.

2

Target Weekend Afternoon Riders with In-App Messaging

Behavioral data shows casual riders are most active on Saturday and Sunday afternoons (12–6pm). Deploy targeted push notifications personalized to each rider's actual usage history: "You've taken 12 rides this month. A membership would have covered all of them at a lower per-ride cost."

3

Concentrate Physical Touchpoints at Lakefront Stations

The top casual stations are near Millennium Park, Navy Pier, and the Museum Campus. Place QR codes and promotional signage at these dock stations. Staff seasonal brand activations during peak summer weekends — guaranteed exposure to the exact target audience.

Project Files

Tools used in this analysis:

R (tidyverse · lubridate) Tableau Public 2026.1.1 Google Data Analytics Certificate

Downloads

📄 Download Case Study (PDF) 📂 View R Analysis Script GitHub Repository

Data Source

Motivate International Inc. (2026). Divvy trip data [Dataset]. Made available under the Divvy Data License Agreement. "Cyclistic" is a fictional company name used in the Google Data Analytics Certificate capstone project; the underlying data reflects real Divvy Bikes trip records from Chicago.